Great news out of the Bureau of Economic Analysis! In fact, it looks like the proof of a recovery that we've all be waiting for. The data is out for the Fourth Quarter of 2009, and yes, readers of this fine blog will be pleased to learn that after 4 straight quarters of declines, private sector wages and salaries increased in the last three months of 2009. They are now splitting the difference between the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2006.
Wow! Of course, the population increased by about 8 million during those years, but who cares? The recovery is here! Hooray!
And the economists are thrilled, because when you factor in government spending and few other things, presto!
Incomes climbed faster than gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, indicating the U.S. expansion is gaining more momentum than growth estimates suggest.
Gross domestic income, or the money earned by the people, businesses and government agencies whose purchases go into calculating growth, rose at a 6.7 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, Commerce Department figures showed today. GDP expanded 6.1 percent in the final three months of 2009 before adjusting for inflation.
“We’re in a recovery and maybe the recovery is a little bit stronger than we thought,” said Ethan Harris, head of North America economics at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Global Research in New York. “My guess is the income will be stronger than the GDP data” in coming quarters.
And we all know that any "guess" out of Bank of America is good as gold.
Posts
yes!!
ReplyDeleterising is always better than falling. we're at least heading in the right direction.
maybe I read the chart wrong, but isn't 4Q 2009 more similar to 4Q 2007? (as opposed to '06?)
I also didn't see 4 straight quarters of declines. It looks like we bottomed out 1Q 2009.
The per capita numbers look pretty decent as well. (line 37)
Anyway, I'll take whatever good news I can get. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Agreed that up is better than down.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking at line 4, which doesn't include things like transfer payments or government employees. It seems like the best indicator as to whether the "recovery" is self sustaining.
I think we all have our fingers crossed.
ah, ic
ReplyDeleteMmm... I'm sorry, but I think this "growth" is all stimulus, which is coming not from production, but more borrowing abroad and more money printing.
ReplyDeleteThey need to let the bad fruit fall to the ground. Let the recession run its course. Sure, it will suck for a while, but at the rate their going, they'll make it suck even worse and for a longer period of time.
There was a depression 90 years ago that started out worse than the great depression, but the government let it run its course and it was over in a year. Needless to say, that's not the choice it made for the great depression, which lasted much longer.
Brutus, I was being a tad sarcastic with the post. While up is certainly better than down, it was a small move up to a very low level and, as you pointed out, likely the result of stimulus efforts. If you've read my blog, you know that I'm not particularly optimistic about a self-sustaining recovery until household debt levels (mortgage, student loan, cc, car loans, etc.) come down - a lot.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what you're referring to 90 years ago - panic of 1907?
Recovery my ass! We need over 150,000 jobs each month merely to keep pace with population growth. Once we've attained that, then we can begin to talk about a recovery.
ReplyDeleteThese shills have no clue about the real state of the U.S. economy. Our nation no longer has the prerequisites needed to have a recovery nor to maintain a large and solid middle class because we shipped our jobs to India, China, and Mexico, we imported foreigners on H-1B and L-1 visas to displace Americans from often college-education-requiring jobs, and we imported millions of impoverished people via legal and illegal immigration to displace Americans from poverty-wage jobs and to drive down wages.
Recovery? We haven't even seen the worst of this depression yet! By the time it's "over" America will have been transformed into an overpopulated, impoverished third world country as a result of our politicians' and the wealthy class's policy of Global Labor Arbitrage.